I knew that Microsoft's new version of Windows was late - I've mentioned it often enough here - but I hadn't realised just how late until the other day when I came across a timeline published on TechRepublic. Vista, then known as Longhorn, was first touted in 2001, and was being slated for a late 2002 release as a cut down version of a more ambitious project called Blackcomb.

By July 2002 Bill Gates was touting Longhorn as a major breakthrough in Windows technology, but there was still no sign of the product itself. The next significant thing to happen was the Microsoft Professional Developers Conference in 2003, which was called Longhorn Professional Developers Conference. However, it still didn't actually feature a working version of Longhorn!

In 2004 Gates announced the target date for shipping Longhorn was 2006, promising important advances in 'performance, security, and reliability'. Nothing much else happened until mid-2005 when Microsoft announced that the new name would be Windows Vista. It was also supposed to be launched in late 2006.

Now, of course, we know that it is not going to be launched until 2007 - early 2007 according to Microsoft, late 2007 according to all the analysts. I know who I would back over when it's going to appear!

The question is, of course, why is it so late?

If you want my opinion, I think that Microsoft has lost control of its operating system. The thing is so massive, and the different bits so intertwined, that it no longer knows what's going on. This also explains the problems the company's having with the EC and the US DoJ over documenting the interfaces for third party developers.

Forget the stupidity of the corporate leadership of Microsoft over the licences and fees. The bottom line is that they are finding it almost impossible to document their unbelievably convoluted interfaces. If they are having this amount of trouble documenting the interfaces, what do you think the chances are of anyone understanding the code behind the interfaces?

The truth is that Windows is out of control and Microsoft is riding a tiger. It daren't let go of the existing code and develop anew because of the number of applications that depend on the bugs and idiosyncrasies of the current system. But if it continues with the current code, then time between new releases it going to carry on growing geometrically. At this rate we can expect to see Windows Vista's successor sometime around 2020...

http://ct.techrepublic.com.com/clicks?t=2355221-
18a32f6148453f76b7d88f6b914d69a0-bf&s=5&fs=0

Alan Lenton
21 May 2006

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